No two teams in the playoff race have had more different experiences trotting backup quarterbacks onto the field than the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Right now, Cincinnati is on a three-game win streak and sits as the No. 6 seed as they head to Acrisure Stadium to take on the faltering Steelers, who have lost three in a row.
As it turns out, Mitchell Trubisky isn’t very good and Pittsburgh had to shift to third-string Mason Rudolph in hopes of sparking an offense that can’t get out of its own way.
Meanwhile, when the world thought the Bengals season was done, Jake Browning started to look like the guy who led Washington to the College Football Playoff in 2016. The NFL odds give Browning and Co. the edge as the favorites in a game that will lack points.
Find out where my best bets lie in my free NFL picks for the Bengals vs. Steelers on Saturday, December 23. Be sure to check out our favorite Bengals vs. Steelers prop picks as well!
Bengals vs Steelers odds
Bengals vs Steelers predictions
It’s a low total (37) for this AFC North divisional game, but somehow it’s only the Pittsburgh Steelers fourth lowest of the year. It says a lot that Pittsburgh has only had two totals Over 40 points in its last seven games.
This was a stagnant offense when Kenny Pickett was running the show, and it temporarily got better for the last outing against Cincinnati once Mike Tomlin fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada. But even when the team put up a season-high 421 total yards against the Bengals, it only scored 16 points.
Pickett, Trubisky, Rudolph… it doesn’t seem to matter who’s under center, nor who’s calling plays with Pittsburgh failing to score more than 18 points since Mike Sullivan took over play-calling in Week 12. This offense has scored just 15.9 points per game this season — 28th in the league — and is averaging only 13.4 points in its last five games.
Inserting Mason Rudolph — who has thrown just 61 passes for 4.6 yards per attempt since 2021 — into the offense was a desperation move and the only choice Tomlin had at this point. But Rudolph won’t save an offense averaging 287.1 yards per game.
The combination of an unimaginative play-caller, backup QBs, poor offensive line play, and pass catchers who would rather be somewhere else isn’t a recipe for points. Even with Cincinnati Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo’s unit taking a step back this season — 27th in EPA per play — they have the talent to shut this Steelers offense down.
Cincinnati is giving up 22.2 points per game, 20th in the NFL, but has dealt with some of the best quarterbacks in the league. The pass rush should be able to push the pocket and harass Rudolph all game. Trey Hendrickson has a career-high 15 sacks and first-round rookie Myles Murphy has started to shine in recent weeks.
The loss of DJ Reader will be tough for the Bengals run defense, but the front seven still has high-end starters like Germaine Pratt, Logan Wilson, BJ Hill, and Sam Hubbard to bully a Pittsburgh run game that’s been non-existent for much of the season.
The real threat to impact this total will be Jake Browning. Since starting his first game against the Steelers in Week 12, the former undrafted free agent is third in EPA per play, third in success rate, and first in CPOE. But he’ll be without superstar Ja’Marr Chase and be dealing with a Pittsburgh defense that’s only allowing 20 points per game, ninth-best in the NFL.
Led by TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith — a combined 22 sacks in 14 games — Pittsburgh is 12th in EPA per play, 11th in EPA per dropback, and 18th in EPA per rush. It’s not the Steel Curtain, but it can do enough to keep the Bengals scoring down. The Pittsburgh offense will do the rest to help the Under.
Another factor in the Under, beyond quarterback play and injuries, is the weather. It’s supposed to be a cold and rainy afternoon in Pittsburgh, which should make for an even tougher time to score points.
My best bet: Under 37 (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Bengals vs Steelers same-game parlay
Under 37Mason Rudolph Under 191.5 passing yardsJoe Mixon Over 45.5 rushing yards
+425 at bet365
Mason Rudolph, a former third-round pick out of Oklahoma State, hasn’t started a game since 2021 and has never shown glimpses of promise. He’s started 10 games, and while he’s thrown for Over 191.5 yards six times, he did it with a far more consistent team around him.
It’s going to be difficult for him to do it with the infrastructure on this offense at an all-time low given the weather. Pittsburgh will likely lean on the run game, and so will the Bengals.
The Steelers’ pass rush can change a game and with Chase out and the wet conditions, this is a prime opportunity for Zac Taylor and offensive coordinator Brian Callahan to lean on Joe Mixon.
Mixon is averaging 58.2 rushing yards per game this season and has run for at least 47 yards 10 times in 14 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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